Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 3.421015e-02 0.040249 0.046514 0.053460 0.060909 0.068626 0.077191
2025-12-14 2.601561e-02 0.034730 0.044310 0.055449 0.067890 0.081224 0.096470
2025-12-21 2.010416e-02 0.030253 0.042005 0.056213 0.072578 0.090553 0.111525
2025-12-28 1.780804e-02 0.029394 0.043332 0.060639 0.080979 0.103661 0.130450
2026-01-04 1.334163e-02 0.025100 0.039997 0.059124 0.082151 0.108286 0.139579
2026-01-11 1.086877e-02 0.022981 0.039010 0.060144 0.086049 0.115829 0.151836
2026-01-18 8.615953e-03 0.020777 0.037638 0.060464 0.088932 0.122052 0.162455
2026-01-25 6.858797e-03 0.018988 0.036598 0.061031 0.091980 0.128361 0.173081
2026-02-01 5.241992e-03 0.017093 0.035209 0.060991 0.094159 0.133548 0.182319
2026-02-08 3.341834e-03 0.014192 0.032085 0.058445 0.093045 0.134663 0.186664
2026-02-15 2.226075e-03 0.012399 0.030383 0.057652 0.094020 0.138202 0.193789
2026-02-22 1.607378e-03 0.011455 0.029878 0.058425 0.096941 0.144065 0.203638
2026-03-01 1.131358e-03 0.010710 0.029708 0.059761 0.100751 0.151226 0.215316
2026-03-08 8.485324e-04 0.010382 0.030201 0.062049 0.105832 0.159999 0.228995
2026-03-15 4.960332e-04 0.009539 0.029726 0.062890 0.108983 0.166372 0.239783
2026-03-22 5.100420e-04 0.010180 0.031879 0.067583 0.117244 0.179103 0.258254
2026-03-29 1.466778e-04 0.008553 0.029816 0.065981 0.117079 0.181302 0.263964
2026-04-05 4.475892e-05 0.007966 0.029587 0.067060 0.120467 0.187918 0.275010
2026-04-12 2.545888e-07 0.007192 0.028903 0.067398 0.122822 0.193213 0.284431
2026-04-19 NaN 0.006561 0.028420 0.067999 0.125504 0.198901 0.294317
2026-04-26 NaN 0.005800 0.027560 0.067956 0.127267 0.203398 0.302722
2026-05-03 NaN 0.004437 0.025117 0.065262 0.125271 0.203030 0.305085
2026-05-10 NaN 0.003671 0.023877 0.064421 0.125798 0.205851 0.311342